The future trend for the total EU space heating load is expected to remain more or less stable, while space cooling demand is expected to continue to rise, according to a report on the average EU building heat load for HVAC equipment, prepared for the European Commission and published in August.
Improved insulation, optimised ventilation, the heat islands created by increased urbanization, and global warming will result in a decrease in the load. However, this will be offset by the load increase resulting from population growth and increased dwelling size and comfort level. A new phenomenon that also plays a role here is the diminished contribution of internal heat gains from lighting and appliances due to efficiency improvements, which also contributes to the increase in the heating load for space heating systems.
Local climate conditions, economical and behavioural characteristics play a dominant role in the space cooling sector, making it difficult to derive demand from EU averages. When derived from installed equipment, EU cooling demand in 2010 amounted to 220 TWh (8% of the space heating demand). According to projections contained in the Ecodesign Impact Accounting report published in May this year, space cooling demand is expected to rise to 305 TWh (+38%) in 2020 and 379 TWh in 2030.
According to the average heat load report, the space heating and cooling load of buildings is a vital component in determining the energy consumption of space heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, which accounts for the largest share of total EU energy consumption.