Wind turbine installations in the European Union are set to increase 64% by 2020 compared to 2013 levels, according to the central scenario in the European Wind Energy Association’s (EWEA) wind energy scenarios for 2020, published in July. According to this scenario, over the next seven years, Member States are set to install 75GW of wind energy, which will bring the total installed capacity in the EU to 192.4 GW, of which offshore installations will account for 23.5GW.
These figures have been revised downwards from the 230 GW of installed capacity, with 40 GW offshore, contained in the EWEA’s previous wind energy scenario published in 2009, due to the protracted economic crisis in Europe since then and regulatory instability in a number of key European markets.
According to the low scenario, which is foreseen if the effects of the economic crisis on power demand continues and pressure on public spending persists across Europe until the end of the decade, installed capacity will increase by 41% to 165.6 GW. Meanwhile the high scenario, in which regulatory stability returns to most markets in Europe with annual installation growth rates returning to pre-2012 levels, the increase in installed capacity will amount to 84.9% to 217 GW.
Under the central scenario, the EWEA expects wind energy to produce 442 TWh of power in 2020, meeting 14.9% of electricity consumption. The forecast installations under this scenario will mean total investments of up to EUR 124 billion in wind farms across the EU, creating over 100,000 additional jobs in the wind industry. This will see the total number employed in the European wind industry increase from 253,000 at the moment to 354,000 by 2020.
Commenting on the forecasts, EWEA Deputy CEO Justin Wilkes said that while regulatory stability is still recovering in Europe, onshore markets such as Germany, France, United Kingdom and Poland would remain key for wind power installations. “For offshore, extra confidence in the UK, continued deployment in Germany, and faster deployment in France and the Netherlands should continue to push the industry forward to 2020. It remains the fastest growing part of the power sector in Europe today,” he said.
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