The report presents the state of play of geothermal energy in Europe and focuses on three forms of it currently in use: ground source heat pumps (GSHP) with 14.9 GW, direct use with 3 GW and geothermal power plants with 0.95 GW installed capacity in the EU. The report identifies the deployment of a new technology, called engineered geothermal system (EGS), as a key issue to expand the resource potential of the geothermal power sector. This technology involves stimulating deep hot resources that are otherwise not exploitable due to lack of water and rock fractures. An overview of the literature suggests that, provided technological challenges are overcome, the installed capacity of EGS technology could reach between 1200 GW to 12000 GW worldwide. For the EU the estimated economic power production potential is up to 2570 TWh in 2050. For comparison, the total currently installed global capacity of geothermal energy is 60 GW.
Although the power production potential with the EGS technology in the EU is very high, public support for geothermal is limited compared to other renewable energy technologies. EGS relies on controlled rock stimulation that can induce seismicity. Hence, the management and safer operation of the EGS technology needs to be developed and tested in a variety of geological conditions. As these tests are expensive, they may be guided by modelling the behaviour of various types of reservoirs. However, this requires improving existing models, an aspect currently pursued by the JRC.
When discussing the costs, the authors observe that the cost of electricity from geothermal energy is lower or comparable to other renewable energy options. However, the relatively high risk of failure during the initial stages of project development may prevent investors from participating in geothermal projects therefore slowing down technological development and widespread deployment. Drilling cost (often exceeding 50 % of the total cost) is the single most important factor which affects investment costs of geothermal energy. Its reduction should decrease the risk of investors during early stages of development.
Background
National Renewable Action Plans (NREAPs) provide a detailed road map of how the EU Member States expect to reach their legally binding 2020 target for the share of renewable energy in their total energy consumption and therefore lower overall CO2 emissions. According to the NREAPs, in 2020 the annual production of geothermal energy in the EU could reach about 50 TWh from ground source heat pumps (from the current 27 TWh), 30 TWh from direct use (from the current 7.6 TWh), and the installed power generation capacity could amount to 1.6 GW. In 2012, EU-wide production from GSHPs and installation of power plants exceeded the NREAP targets whereas direct heat use was lower than predicted by the NREAPs.
Read further:
2014 JRC Geothermal Energy Status Report