Renewable sources could provide nearly half of the energy used to heat Europe’s homes by 2040, according the study ‘Beyond the Flame: The Transformation of Europe’s Heat Sector’, produced by the research company IHS. The study found that the share of renewable heat used in the residential sector could reach 49% by 2040 – a significant level, given that heating and cooling accounts for almost half of European energy consumption.
The study evaluates a range of technology options as well as building refurbishment measures based on their levelised costs and ease of installation in existing buildings, to identify the most practical and affordable solutions to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and increase the share of the renewable heat.
“At the current pace of change in the heat sector, Europe will fall short of the 2030 and 2050 goals, but more rapid change is possible,” said Catherine Robinson, senior director at IHS Energy. “Our analysis strongly suggests that existing technology can transform Europe’s heat sector—significantly increasing the share of low-cost renewable heat— in the next 15 years by using existing legislation to introduce hybrid heating systems, which combine a high-efficiency condensing gas boiler with an air-source heat pump,” she said.
“Adopting a tighter standard for residential heating and cooling could transform the residential heating sector, it would cut by more than half the volume of gas burned in homes and increase the share of renewables to almost 50 percent by 2040,” Robinson said, adding that would also have far-reaching implications for many stakeholders, like utilities or gas producers.
While significant uncertainty remains about the future shape of the European heat sector, it is clear that the pace of change in the sector will accelerate in the future and will become increasingly intertwined with the power sector, from both a policy and an operational point of view. However the report noted that, given the local nature of heat provision across the EU Member States, national and even local policy would be a key driver of change.