Who would not wish to be able to look into the future and predict the effects of a certain action? According to ancient Greek mythology, in the town of Delphi there once was a famous oracle which was able to do precisely that. Legend has it that the town’s name was derived from a person called Delphos. Recently, the term Delphos has appeared in a completely different context, but once again it is associated with the promise of predicting the future.
But this is where the similarity ends: instead of relying on hallucinations and being possessed by the Greek God Apollo, today's DELPHOS is based on a comprehensive database and an elaborated methodology, thus being capable of providing more accurate and comparable assessments of innovations.
The online tool developed by KIC InnoEnergy runs scenarios on the cost effect of innovations to help innovators and decision makers evaluate the impact of these innovations on renewable energy: offshore and onshore wind, solar photovoltaics and solar-thermal electricity. KIC InnoEnergy is a European company that, among other services, provides support to finalise and commercialise technological innovations.
"Assuming you have a great business idea and want to successfully bring your product or service to the market, you will possibly face a few crucial questions", explains Emilien Simonot, renewables technology officer at KIC InnoEnergy. "One of them concerning the impact on the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) – the net costs to install a renewable energy system divided by its expected life-time energy output."
By using DELPHOS, innovators can estimate the value of their innovation beforehand, which provides a better starting position before entering into negotiations. To assess the anticipated benefits of an innovation, KIC InnoEnergy, like other decision makers, relies on the assumed levelised costs that are calculated by means of models. Therefore KIC InnoEnergy, in collaboration with BVG Associates, are developing DELPHOS to offer an approach for a robust methodological simulation.
DELPHOS has been made publicly available by KIC InnoEnergy in order to serve a greater purpose than just serving their own role as an investor. Simonot identifies three areas of application for DELPHOS:
- Small and medium sized companies, including start-ups acting in the supply chain are potential users, since they often do not have access to the specialised, professional simulation tools that larger companies have.
- Research groups at universities or research centres, who usually have comprehensive experience in the technological area, but are faced with a challenge when linking their innovation to the market, which requires extensive know-how related to financial calculations, such as capital expenditures and operational costs.
- National agencies that help policy makers decide on the best way of supporting renewable energies through studies and extensive analysis.
"I am curious who else might put it to good use”, Simonot wonders.
The Carbon Trust, the UK based not-for-profit focused on commercialising new low-carbon technologies, has been using DELPHOS to test its effectiveness in proving the future commercial value of technologies.
Al-Karim Govindji, Senior Project Manager at the Carbon Trust, said: “We’ve been using this tool for a number of months now and the initial results look extremely promising. In assessing cost improvements of offshore wind, for example, we have historically relied on published data, but this tool allows us to customise the inputs in line with the results we get from our demonstration programmes. So having a free to use online product like Delphos has made a massive difference to the way we can assess the carbon impact of technologies we are supporting. We’re looking forward to using this tool for project cost verification in the future.”
One of the key contributors of data to help build the model was PSA-Ciemat who operates the world’s largest R&D centre devoted to concentrating solar thermal systems.
Eduardo Zarza, PSA-Ciemat, said: "Delphos is an extremely useful tool and we are delighted to see the release of its STE version to the industry. The modelling provides real insight and understanding into how new products and innovations can impact the costs of energy produced by solar-thermal power plants. It will also make extensive sets of data available to many people in the STE sector who might not otherwise be able to access or afford it."
LINK TO DELPHOS: