Nuclear energy currently accounts for slightly less than 30% of the electricity consumed in the EU. This electricity is mainly stable and reliable base load that is secure from a supply perspective, CO₂ free, and competitively priced. As a result, nuclear energy is already a positive contributor to the EU economy in terms of growth and jobs. A standard figure puts the current number of people in the EU directly or indirectly employed in the nuclear sector at 500 000¹. When the figures for ‘induced’ jobs are included the number increases to around 900 000, with the corresponding added valued for the European economy estimated at EUR 70 billion per year.

This article aims to present the results of an analysis of the impact that nuclear energy’s contribution to the low-carbon energy mix may have in terms of job creation and growth (added value to the economy through investments of billions of euros per year) within the 2020, 2030 and 2050 timeframes. This analysis, which was cross checked by experts from the European Nuclear Energy Forum (ENEF), is based on the "Delayed CCS" scenario of the EU Energy Roadmap 2050, where nuclear contributes nearly 20% of electricity in 2050.

From a total of about 150 nuclear plants in the EU, approximately 135 are currently in operation. Their average age is nearly 30 years. Some Member States (MS) have taken the decision to close their plants: Germany's last unit will be stopped in 2022, Belgium plans to close all its units between 2015 and 2025 and the UK will close all Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors (AGRs) in the coming years. In other MS, long-term operation (plant lifetime extension) of existing plants will most probably occur on economic grounds, even considering important investments for plant upgrades, including for safety concerns (i.e. outcomes of the post-Fukushima stress tests).

The Energy Roadmap 2050 mainly provides 2 types of decarbonisation scenarios for the EU from the nuclear perspective: 2 scenarios going to nuclear phase out in 2050, and 3 scenarios leading to a fraction of between 15% and 20% of electricity produced by nuclear energy. For our analysis we will take a figure of 20%, which is lower than industry projections.² As electricity is set to play an increased role in the future low-carbon economy, a quick calculation shows that the nuclear capacity in 2050 will have to be about the same as today, around 140 GWe (with a load factor of around 85-90%).  This transition from 30% electricity supplied by nuclear today to 20% in 2050 from long-term operation and new construction programs will have an impact on investment needs and jobs (in addition to the 900 000 jobs and EUR 70 billion/year mentioned above).

A higher-end estimate of the investment cost for long-term operation (LTO) upgrades, including safety, is of the order of EUR 900 million³ per unit. The estimation of investment for a new built (NoAK "n^th of a kind" Generation III) is of the order of EUR 5 billion⁴ for a plant expected to operate for 60 years. Therefore, investments in LTO make economic sense if they allow a lifetime extension of between 10 and 20 years – leading to a total plant lifetime of between 50 and 60 years. These figures seem reasonable considering the safety issues at stake. The average lifetime of operating plants in the EU in 2020 will be around 40 years, 50 years in 2030 and 60 years in 2040. This means that nearly all existing operating plants in the EU will be shut down between 2020 and 2050, after 40, 50 or 60 years of operation, depending on the final decisions in terms of LTO.

From this information and the goal of 140 GWe of nuclear electricity in 2050 as defined above, it is easy to conclude that about 100 to 120 new nuclear power units will have to be built between now and 2050 – the exact number will be a function of the rated power output of the individual units. For the purpose of our analysis, we will assume a round number of 100 new units. It is most probable that in MS that continue to rely on nuclear energy for their mix, most plants will enter into LTO programmes and lifetime extensions to between 50 and 60 years. The LTO programmes will be realised between roughly 2015 and 2035 and most existing operating plants will be shut down between 2030 and 2050, so new plants will have to be connected to the grid in the same period. Assuming a construction time of 7 years, the bulk of the construction of new plants will take place between 2025 and 2045 (construction is anticipated in the UK to replace the fleet of AGRs).

So, what will this mean in terms of investment needs and job creation? For investment we can take a rough figure of EUR 900 million per plant for LTO programmes (to be multiplied by roughly 100 units – the 135 in operation minus DE, BE and UK AGRs). For new built, EUR 5 billion euros for a NoAK Generation III is an acceptable estimate - and about 100 new units will have to be built between now and 2050. As regards jobs, the "regular functioning" of nuclear plants will see a roughly constant need for manpower from now until 2050 and beyond – the personnel needs of existing plants being taken over by the personnel needs of the new built once in operation. So we do not count any additional jobs over time for the regular operation of plants. The additional manpower needs for LTO and new built programmes should integrate the manpower for supplementary design and licensing efforts, and the manpower for suppliers and work on the sites. All of this can be refined into direct, indirect and "induced" jobs.

For the construction phase of new built, a rough estimate of personnel directly employed during construction of a single unit is 2700 people⁵. If construction of the 100 new units takes place over the 20 year period 2025-2045, and the construction takes 7 years, this means that, on average, about 30 units will be under construction in parallel in the EU during that period, leading to around 90 000 direct jobs over the whole period. As regards indirect jobs, the figure should reach 150 000 jobs for the construction of new built over the 20-year period from 2025 to 2045. The grand total including "induced jobs" will amount to around 250 000 jobs.

For the LTO, considering that LTO activities are closer to new built than standard maintenance and operation, a first evaluation of supplementary jobs might perhaps best be estimated by taking the ratio of investments for LTO versus new built (1 to 5) – leading to 30 000 direct and indirect jobs over the period 2015-2035, and a grand total of 50 000 jobs including "induced jobs". Under LTO we have included the specific aspects of stress test upgrades which might be anticipated in time, versus LTO programmes per se. To refine, we can take a rough estimate of 100 million euros per unit for post-stress test specific safety upgrades, leading to 10 billion euros in total for the 100 NPP that will undergo LTO. Using the same rule as above, this corresponds to roughly 10 000 jobs for the period 2012-2020.

Looking at the overall picture, we arrive at a figure of 300 000 jobs created both LTO and new build over a period of 20 years. This will involve total investment of 600 billion euros, corresponding to 100 000 euros per job per year, including all equipment and material costs⁶.

Conclusion for 100 plants undergoing LTO programmes and 100 new built (140 GWe) in the period between now until 2050:

• Total additional investment needs

(Beyond the standard value added of operation of nuclear plants)

Activity	Timeframe	Investment
LTO (for extension 10 to 20 years)	2015-2035	EUR 90 billion (incl. 10 billion for post ST safety upgrades)
New Built (for 60 year lifetime):	2025-2045	EUR 500 billion

• Additional jobs

(Manpower needs in addition to "BAU⁷" plant operation = 900 000 jobs in total)

Activity	Timeframe	Jobs
LTO (for extension 10 to 20 years)	2015-2035	50 000 jobs – of which 10 000 for post ST upgrades until 2020
New Built (for 60 year lifetime):	2025-2045	250 000 jobs

This article is based on a paper presented by DG Energy Deputy Director General Peter Faross at the European Nuclear Energy Forum Plenary Meeting in Prague in May 2013.⁸

For more information on the economics of Nuclear Energy, see:

Synthesis on the Economics of Nuclear Energy

¹ The figure of 500 000 Jobs (direct + indirect) in the EU is in line with the figure given for FR in the PWC Low-carbon Economy Index Report.

² The Eurelectric Power Choices report puts nuclear power’s contribution at 28% in 2050.

³ Figures from FR sources indicate an expected increase from EUR 40 billion to EUR 50 billion for the LTO and stress tests adaptation programme for the French Gen II Fleet – going from 40 to 60 years. Another source quoted EUR 55 billion for the whole programme. For the 58 units in operation, this corresponds to around EUR 900 million per unit in the FR case.  In the case of BE, GDFSUEZ has proposed an LTO programme of EUR 1 billion for the 3 oldest units, which might be somewhat increased for additional post-stress test measures.

⁴ Figure used in the PWC Report.

⁵ PWC report mentioning 2700 direct jobs, 1900 indirect jobs and 3750 additional jobs. In total 8350 jobs. 

⁶ This fits with the PWC report value of 3 direct jobs per million euros invested, or 10 global jobs.

⁷ Business as usual

⁸ A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies